Billions of the World Cup.. Who is the biggest winner?

FIFA is betting on unprecedented revenues in the first World Cup featuring 48 teams, while the returns for participating countries and host cities appear more ambiguous.

The international federation expects to achieve record revenues of $13 billion during the 2023-2026 cycle, including $8.9 billion in 2026 alone.

This latest figure, which reflects the impact of the men's World Cup specifically, shows an increase of 56% compared to the 2022 edition in Qatar, and 67% compared to the 2018 edition in Russia, and double compared to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

Raffaele Poli, director of the Football Observatory at the International Centre for Sports Studies in Neuchâtel, confirms in an interview with AFP that the joint organization between the United States, Canada, and Mexico "provides a large platform for sponsors," and that the transition from 32 to 48 teams expands the fan base, but "the +World Cup+ brand is strong enough that its growth mainly comes from a long-term trend."

Poli explains that "FIFA has improved revenue generation techniques from the event," whether through marketing packages across multiple regions, pressuring in broadcasting rights negotiations with China, or adopting "dynamic pricing" for tickets, despite the anger of fan associations and lawsuits filed in Europe and the United States.

Thus, the transition from 64 to 104 matches alone is not enough to explain the significant jump in ticket revenues expected to exceed $3 billion, more than three times the revenues of 2022. Broadcast rights are expected to rise by 34% to nearly $4 billion, while partnership revenues increase by 21%.

How will such a large pie be shared, less than a year before a crucial conference for federation president Gianni Infantino, who will run for a new term on March 18, 2027, which could be his last?

Of the $3.7 billion FIFA intends to spend on the World Cup, a quarter will go to the participating teams and clubs whose players participate, after the total prize money for the tournament was raised by 15% in late April to $871 million (compared to $440 million in Qatar).

Each participating team is guaranteed a minimum of $12.5 million, with the amount reaching $50 million for the winning team, without any guarantee that this will offset significantly high costs, whether due to the geographical spread of the tournament or taxes imposed in the United States or Canada, if federations fail to negotiate exemptions.

A source close to football authorities estimates to AFP that "reaching the quarter-finals will be necessary to achieve profits."